It has to be said that my prediction record is shaky. You can generally get an idea of who is going to sweep up the acting Oscars from the trends set by the other awards shows but recently the directing and film gongs have given us some surprises (a very public surprise that the producers of La La Land will undoubtedly never forget). Also, like many film nerds, I get swayed by what I want to win rather than what might. This year for example I struggle to accept that the sublime If Beale Street Could Talk won’t win everything it is nominated for despite the fact that the Academy clearly doesn’t rate it because it has barely been nominated at all. Then of course there’s the fact that I don’t really know what I’m talking about and while I might have seen more films than some people, most of my guesses are just that.
So it is then that Roma will be (might not be, could be, who knows?) the biggest winner of the night snatching five Oscars for Best Motion Picture, Best Achievement in Directing, Best Cinematography and the two awards for sound. It might win Best Foreign Language Film and lets me honest this is more likely because no movie not in English has ever won Best Film but an increasingly anti-Trump, pro-Mexico, outward looking academy could well change that. As it is I think Best Film not in the English Language is going to go to Cold War.
I might be going out on a limb when I suggest The Favourite won’t be the favourite; only taking the awards for Costume and Original Screenplay. I’d love Olivia Colman to be celebrated but I think after seven nominations and no win, a record for this category, Glenn Close is finally going to be crowned as Best Actress.
It looks like Rami Malek and Mahershala Ali will be Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor respectively with Regina King getting a hugely deserved statuette for Best Support Actress in Beale Street. If Beale Street could take anything else it’ll be Score. As stated I think it should get Adapted Screenplay too but my gut tells me that this will go to BlacKkKlansman which would be equally deserved.
Black Panther will have to make do with Production Design, it’s studio cousin Infinity War will be awarded Best Visual Effects. Vice will be made up with Hair and Make Up. A Star is Born’s only win will be for Best Song and the other big musical Bohemian Rhapsody will get Best Editing. Pixar will have to make do with Best Animated Short for Bao because Incredibles 2 will lose Animated Feature to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
If there is any wisdom or not behind any of these choices then your guess could easily be better than mine with the doc categories. Let’s say Free Solo for Documentary Feature and A Night at the Garden for Documentary Short. Live Action Short will go to er… Mother.
In the end the most interesting thing about the whole ceremony will almost certainly be the whole ceremony. Ratings and critical appreciation for the show have been dropping over recent years with there being no reliable go to host as there was in the days of Bob Hope and Billy Crystal. I think Jimmy Kimmel did an okay job recently but this year they gave the gig to Kevin Hart instead only for him to step down when it came out that his heart was once more that a little homophobic. It seems the President can be forgiven for anything but rightly or wrongly Hollywood actors are given less leniency. As it is there won’t be a host at all now so at least Liam Neeson can rest easy knowing his questionable past opinions are less likely to be mentioned in any opening monologue. It seems that they are going to do something different with the show this year and on that I have no predictions at all.